Hurricane Florence Long-Term Impact on East Coast Uncertain

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Source: The Weather Company - Hurricane Florence is spinning over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, and while it's no immediate threat to land, interests in Bermuda and potentially the U.S. East Coast should continue to monitor the system.

Forecast model guidance is indicating that Florence will be roaming the Atlantic Basin well into the second week of September. For now, it's too early to determine the long-term track of Florence beyond five days since that will depend on the evolution of the upper-level weather pattern and the future strength of Florence.

An increasing number of forecast models are indicating Florence may track close enough to impact Bermuda early next week. Interests in Bermuda should closely monitor the progress of Florence.

Beyond that, there is still a chance that Florence could move on a path that would even take it closer to the East Coast of the United States later next week.

For now, this is nothing to be overly concerned about since there is a large amount of uncertainty in this long-range forecast, but we will continue to monitor Florence for that possibility and provide more updates in the coming days.

Why Florence's Path Is Uncertain Next Week

Florence will move to the west-northwest along the southern periphery of a high-pressure system located to its north through this weekend.

Early next week that area of high pressure will be eroded away by a southward plunge of the jet stream moving over eastern Canada and the far northwest Atlantic Ocean. Florence could move far enough north and feel the influence of that jet stream plunge and move in that direction farther out to sea.

On the other hand, if Florence doesn't feel as much influence from the jet stream, it could turn farther west as another area of high pressure builds over the eastern United States and the western Atlantic. If that happened, it could bring Florence uncomfortably close to parts of the East Coast mid-late next week.

In short, the long-term forecast path of Florence is highly uncertain, and it will take some time to sort out details. You may see various forecast model depictions for Florence's path in social media or elsewhere, but it's important to know these are not official forecasts.

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